Mariners vs Orioles takes center stage in a 1:05 pm ET showdown with Logan Evans on the mound for Seattle and Tomoyuki Sugano taking the ball for Baltimore. FanDuel lists Mariners as the favorite on the run line at -1.5 and a -126 moneyline, while the Orioles sit at +108. The total sits at 9.5 with a slight lean to the under. Gunnar Henderson is highlighted as the best MLB prop on the board with a HR bet at +370, driven by Evans allowing a higher homer rate and Henderson power despite a quieter season overall. Baltimore is positioned as the home underdog, while Seattle has struggled offensively since the All-Star break, hitting .213 with a lofty 25.2 K rate, edging the Orioles in OPS only marginally. The pitcher matchup is close, with Evans at 4.36 ERA and Sugano at 4.24 ERA, making bullpen and park factors pivotal to the scoring outcome.

Expect a tight, medium length game with a potential late swing in the betting markets as the teams adjust to the afternoon start. Henderson's power upside clashes with Evans power leakage, while Sugano counters the Orioles offense that has posted a .241 average and .729 OPS in the post-break period. The piece leans Orioles in a competitive home underdog spot, but cautions that the Mariners offense could spark with timely hits and Carolina Yards style shifts late. For fantasy play, this game offers exposure to Hendersons big moment potential and the two starting pitchers who could both flirt with a few clean innings before the bullpen takes over.

Three homer picks headline Thursday’s short MLB slate: Gunnar Henderson, Francisco Lindor, and Kerry Carpenter. Henderson goes against Logan Evans, whose 1.6 HR/9 hints at a power-friendly matchup for the Orioles rookie, who has flashed big power with 14 homers this season. Lindor draws Bryce Elder, a pitcher with elevated homer risk and a rough 6.12 ERA profile, presenting a prime chance for a Lindor homer. Carpenter anchors Detroit’s lineup against Bailey Ober, whose 2.0 HR/9 allows for a Tigers bomb from Carpenter, Detroit’s slugging leader at .539.

Odds tilt toward upside: Henderson at +370, Lindor at +400, Carpenter at +265, offering a trio of monster-home-run paths across a handful of games. Expect high-variance, big-play potential from these bets, with Carpenter representing the value play given the opponent and Tigers’ power profile.